Medium Grains, High stakes: Economics of Genetically Modified Rice in California

Bond CA, Carter CA, and Farzin YH (2003). AgBioForum, 6(4): 146-154.

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Abstract or Summary:

This paper gives estimates of the potential profitability of herbicide-tolerant (HT) rice cultivation in the Sacramento Valley region of California. We estimate first-year returns for the average producer and use both deterministic and stochastic methods to perform sensitivity analysis to account for heterogeneity and uncertainty with respect to potential adoption. Results show that adoption of the HT rice technology will likely be profitable for a majority of rice producers in California, even in the presence of nontransgenic price premia and technology fees.

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